Heads or Tails?

If we flip coin 101 times.
How many heads and tails there will be ?
Over the entire sequence of 101 coin tosses what is the most likely number of lead changes between heads and tails?

People intuition of probability is very poor and usually very inaccurate. Prior to the experiment, just to test out intuition, we were asked how many times we think there would be a change in lead between heads and tails out of 101 tosses. The answers were different; twenty five, six, four, thirty and many others. However, in terms of single most likely outcome the answer is zero.  We been asked to experiment our self’s and see what will be outcome in practise. As you can see from the graphs, the outcome was not zero, yet the number of lead change between heads and tails was not that frequent. Furthermore, overall distribution of heads and tails was very close to 50% heads, 50% tails in both coin tossing experiments. This experiment just proves one more time that people have an illusionary intuition of probability, and that there is a perceptual bias in people’s probability judgment.  

Trail by Toma & Sylwia

Trail by Emma & Claire